صنعت زیرساخت در ایران- سه ماهه چهارم 2015

BMI Industry View

BMI View: We have upwardly revised our construction industry forecasts for Iran on the back of the agreement reached with the P5+1 countries and the announcement that sanctions will be lifted faster than expected. Structural weaknesses in the Iranian economy - particularly the lack of competitiveness in the labour market - will present the main risks to investors willing to return to this market.

Key Trends And Developments

■ We forecast 1.4% y-o-y real construction industry growth in Iran in 2015 and an average of 4.3% over the next five years as a result of the lifting of international sanctions.

■ Greater competitiveness in Iran's labour market will be required to support growth in the construction industry. Although Iran's labour force is highly educated by regional standards, high labour costs will continue to pose a structural barrier to investment.

• The steep fall in oil prices in the past few months has prompted our Oil & Gas team to revise down their already bearish price forecasts and they now forecast Brent to average USD59.0/bbl in 2015. With the oil and gas industry accounting for an estimated 70% of the country's total exports, the government has been forced to cut public spending in infrastructure.

• With regards to economic growth, our Country Risk team forecasts Iran's economy to return to growth in 2015 with 0.6% real GDP growth. In the residential sector, we believe housing prices will remain elevated over the coming quarters, largely a result of a lack of appropriate housing units.

• Apart from Chinese and Russian companies, Arab, French, Turkish, Indian and South Korean construction firms have expressed an interest in returning to the Iranian infrastructure market. The lifting of international sanctions will considerably diversify Iran's competitive landscape.

• Despite an improving outlook for Iran's infrastructure sector, the country will continue to present significant challenges, including elevated political risk, macroeconomic weaknesses, social tensions and a lack of transparency.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت زیرساخت در ایران- سه ماهه چهارم 2015