صنعت زیرساخت در ایران- سه ماهه دوم 2015

BMI Industry View

BMI View: We have downgraded our construction industry forecast for Iran in 2015 to 1.6% real growth, from a previous 2.8%, on account of falling oil prices. Reduced government revenue will further limit public investment in infrastructure and Iran's weak business environment will continue to discourage private investment.

The Islamic Republic remains a country of pronounced risks, including political instability, economic challenges and social tensions, and we believe the current situation is unsustainable in the long term. US energy sanctions and the EU oil embargo have affected Iranian oil production and consequently the economy at large. With the oil and gas industry accounting for an estimated 70% of the country's total exports, the government has been forced to cut public spending, with a devastating impact on infrastructure development.

Key Trends And Developments

■ We estimate construction industry growth to have been 2.8% in 2014 and we expect the industry to grow by an average of 3.4% over the next five years.

■ The steep fall in oil prices in the past few months has prompted our Oil & Gas team to revise down their already bearish price forecasts and they now forecast Brent to average USD55.0/bbl in 2015.

■ A 'permanent' agreement between the P5+1 countries and Iran on the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme will not be reached in 2015. Significant technical and political challenges remain, but we expect nuclear talks to continue throughout the year.

■ As oil prices are low and talks on the nuclear programme fail to reach a breakthrough, our Country Risk team has revised down their GDP growth forecast for Iran to 1.4% in 2015 and 2.2% in 2016, respectively, from 2.1% and 3.0% previously.

• In the residential sector, we believe housing prices will remain elevated over the coming quarters, largely a result of a lack of appropriate housing units.

• Apart from Chinese and Russian companies, Arab, French, Turkish and South Korean construction firms have expressed an interest in returning to the Iranian infrastructure market. It has been reported that GS Engineering & Construction started surveying the Iranian market, looking for opportunities in gas infrastructure in particular. This does not come as a surprise since Iran has an estimated 18% of total global natural gas reserves.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت زیرساخت در ایران- سه ماهه دوم 2015