بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت زیر ساخت درایران-سه ماهه اول2011

Iran’s renewed focus on infrastructure projects reflects the government’s appreciation that a sanctions-hit economy will struggle to trade its way to economic success. There are clear demand-side drivers that will underpin a growing effort to invest in the country’s built infrastructure, notably annual demand for new housing units estimated at 1.5mn a year. Where Iran will struggle is on the delivery; though there are many public commitments to disbursing state funds, the ability to mobilise this expenditure is constrained by a weak contracting environment, excessive bureaucracy, and the additional burden imposed by a tighteni international sanctions regime. BMI is confident that Iran’s construction sector will grow at a modest pace over the next couple of years, before registering stronger increases from 2013-2015.

There have been a series of developments on key projects over recent months:

Transport has emerged as a major focus for the Iranian authorities, centred on a US$2bn Chinese investment in upgrading the Islamic Republic’s rail networks signed in Q3 2010. Chinese companies were awarded a US$2bn contract in September 2010 to link Tehran with the Iraq/Iran border at Khosravi, a distance of 580 kilometres, intended to service Iranian pilgrims visiting the main Shia religious sites in Iraq and lay the foundations for a longer link that will connect Syria to Iran.

Iran’s ports are still limited in their capacity, only able to service 100,000 ton vessels. This has forced Tehran to use ships docking at the main UAE ports, such as Dubai’s Jebel Ali, for goods to be loaded onto smaller ships and sent to Iran.

There are plans to expand Iran’s main airports, with Iranian Airports Holding Company looking to attract in excess of US$1bn in investment into the aviation sector. The main ongoing expansion project is the Imam Khomeini airport in Tehran, which is to be tripled in capacity to 20mn passengers a year, before hitting its peak capacity of 90mn passengers a year – a long-term target that appears highly ambitious in the current climate.

The most promising sign of new transport sector development is in the invitation to bid in July on a new transport network that would integrate Qeshm island to the mainland via rail and road and in the unveiling of plans to build four new metro rail lines in the capital.

Iran appears to be ramping up its efforts to enrich uranium to the 20% level though 2010, in defiance of the international community. Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, announced in late Q210 that Iran had enriched 17 kg of uranium to 20% since beginning work in February 2010. The Bushehr nuclear plant has already reported progress through 2010, with the first uranium-filled fuel rods loaded into the nuclear plant on 21 August, with the first power expected to reach the national grid by end-Q4 2010.

With construction centre-stage in Iran’s state-led expenditure programme, activity will continue to grow in 2011, though at a slower pace than previously anticipated. We see construction real growth at 1.4% in 2011, with the construction sector value at US$32.8bn compared to US$36.95bn in our previous forecast. The main reason for the revision is the lower capital investment that will be directed toward the sector in 2011; we expect capital investment to reach US$120.1bn for the year, compared to US$142.3bn previously. This reflects generally weaker economic confidence, amid toughening economic sanctions, and the struggle to mobilise private and public sources of capital to upgrade Iran’s infrastructure.