صنعت زیرساخت در ایران- سه ماهه اول 2015
BMI Industry View
BMI View: We reiterate our view that the Iranian construction industry will pick up momentum in the short-to-medium term, with growth forecast to average 3.6% over the next five years. While this is highly dependent upon the outcome from negotiations with the West over the nuclear programme, the market is already showing signs of recovery and interest from international firms is on the rise.
The Islamic Republic remains a country of pronounced risks, including political instability, economic challenges and social tensions, and we believe the current situation is unsustainable in the long term.
Despite elevated oil prices, US energy sanctions and the EU oil embargo have affected Iranian oil production and consequently the economy at large. With the oil and gas industry accounting for an estimated 70% of the country's total exports, the government has been forced to cut public spending, with a devastating impact on infrastructure development.
Key Trends And Developments
■ Although we estimate construction industry growth to have been 1.4% in 2014, we expect the industry to pick up momentum in the short- to medium term, growing at an average rate of 3.6% over the next five years.
■ A 'permanent' agreement between the P5+1 countries and Iran on the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme will not be reached in 2015. Significant technical and political challenges remain, but we expect nuclear talks will continue throughout the year.
■ Our Country Risk team forecasts real GDP growth of 2.8% and 2.9% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, from a 2.9% contraction in 2013. The return to growth will be the result of improving relations with the West, more effective macroeconomic management and low base effects.
■ In the residential sector, we believe that housing prices will remain relatively elevated over the coming quarters, largely a result of a lack of appropriate housing units. Although we are confident that the current administration will succeed in encouraging private sector companies to increase the offer of housing, contributing to a gradual decline in costs, the effects of such policies will be felt only after a few years.
• Apart from Chinese and Russian companies, Arab, French and South Korean construction firms have expressed interest in returning to the Iranian infrastructure market. It has been reported that GS Engineering & Construction started surveying the Iranian market, looking for opportunities in gas infrastructure in particular. This does not come as a surprise since Iran has an estimated 18% of total global natural gas reserves.
