گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت زیرساخت درایران-سه ماهه سوم2010
Executive Summary
After the government announced a US$110bn package for construction spending early in 2010, the latest quarter (Q110) saw relatively little movement in Iran’s infrastructure sector. The country narrowly avoided a contraction in the sector, as its oil-fuelled construction boom cooled to a growth of 1.65% in 2009. The growth rate will almost double to 3.22% in 2010, when the sector will be worth IRR298,612bn (US$29.44bn), but recent months have seen chronic delays outweighing progress.
An accelerated erosion of foreign investment and business ties as a result of greater international political pressure, as well as Iran’s deeply flawed business environment, have helped deflate BMI’s 2010 forecast from 5% in the previous Q210 report. The country’s oil and gas revenue plummeted by 45.5% year-onyear (y-o-y) in the first half of 2009-2010 to US$31.3bn, although this loss may be offset by savings from the slashes in the government’s cumbersome goods and services subsidy system.
Data released by the Central Bank of Iran indicated a bottoming out in construction activity during the second quarter of Iran’s 2009-2010 financial year. The figures for the quarter show a 37.5% y-o-y drop in the number of construction permits issued in urban regions during the period, with the number of permits issued in Tehran alone dwindling by 64.9% y-o-y. Although the rate of growth in the construction sector will accelerate to the 5% mark in 2011 and 2012 it will slow thereafter, with the industry growing by 4.13% in 2013 to IRR522,495bn (US$44.50bn) The rate of growth in the overall construction sector will edge down further to 3.96% in 2014, leaving the industry just shy of the US$50bn mark at
IRR611,093bn (US$49.57bn).
The country’s gas sector was the exception to the rule this quarter, as Iran announced plans to invest US$6.8bn on developing and expanding its gas infrastructure in 2009-2010. The investment will go towards the construction of the ninth Iranian Gas Trunkline pipeline, the completion of a second gas pipeline from Turkmenistan and expansion work on three gas processing facilities. The announcement came in addition to ostensible progress on the US$7.6bn Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, as well as gas pipeline deals with Kuwait and Azerbaijan.
US moves to stymie construction activity in Iran recently included the Treasury Department’s asset freeze of several units of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC)’s engineering arm Khatam alAnbiya, which has amassed hundreds of construction contracts in recent years. Moreover, the lobbying power of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has increasingly become a thorn in Iran’s side and recent successful targets included Shell as well as manufacturer Ingersoll Rand, which suspended the supplies to National Iranian Oil Company.
The deputy energy minister Mohammad Behzad, announced plans, in February 2010, to privatise 20 power plants by September 2010. However, Iran's business environment is defined by opacity and corruption, with poor legal and financial frameworks in place, rendering the fruition of the privatisation significantly doubtful.
After the government announced a US$110bn package for construction spending early in 2010, the latest quarter (Q110) saw relatively little movement in Iran’s infrastructure sector. The country narrowly avoided a contraction in the sector, as its oil-fuelled construction boom cooled to a growth of 1.65% in 2009. The growth rate will almost double to 3.22% in 2010, when the sector will be worth IRR298,612bn (US$29.44bn), but recent months have seen chronic delays outweighing progress.
An accelerated erosion of foreign investment and business ties as a result of greater international political pressure, as well as Iran’s deeply flawed business environment, have helped deflate BMI’s 2010 forecast from 5% in the previous Q210 report. The country’s oil and gas revenue plummeted by 45.5% year-onyear (y-o-y) in the first half of 2009-2010 to US$31.3bn, although this loss may be offset by savings from the slashes in the government’s cumbersome goods and services subsidy system.
Data released by the Central Bank of Iran indicated a bottoming out in construction activity during the second quarter of Iran’s 2009-2010 financial year. The figures for the quarter show a 37.5% y-o-y drop in the number of construction permits issued in urban regions during the period, with the number of permits issued in Tehran alone dwindling by 64.9% y-o-y. Although the rate of growth in the construction sector will accelerate to the 5% mark in 2011 and 2012 it will slow thereafter, with the industry growing by 4.13% in 2013 to IRR522,495bn (US$44.50bn) The rate of growth in the overall construction sector will edge down further to 3.96% in 2014, leaving the industry just shy of the US$50bn mark at
IRR611,093bn (US$49.57bn).
The country’s gas sector was the exception to the rule this quarter, as Iran announced plans to invest US$6.8bn on developing and expanding its gas infrastructure in 2009-2010. The investment will go towards the construction of the ninth Iranian Gas Trunkline pipeline, the completion of a second gas pipeline from Turkmenistan and expansion work on three gas processing facilities. The announcement came in addition to ostensible progress on the US$7.6bn Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, as well as gas pipeline deals with Kuwait and Azerbaijan.
US moves to stymie construction activity in Iran recently included the Treasury Department’s asset freeze of several units of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC)’s engineering arm Khatam alAnbiya, which has amassed hundreds of construction contracts in recent years. Moreover, the lobbying power of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) has increasingly become a thorn in Iran’s side and recent successful targets included Shell as well as manufacturer Ingersoll Rand, which suspended the supplies to National Iranian Oil Company.
The deputy energy minister Mohammad Behzad, announced plans, in February 2010, to privatise 20 power plants by September 2010. However, Iran's business environment is defined by opacity and corruption, with poor legal and financial frameworks in place, rendering the fruition of the privatisation significantly doubtful.
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