صنعت زیرساخت در ایران- سه ماهه سوم 2015

BMI Industry View

BMI View: The Iranian construction sector stands to benefit from greater international interest, easier access to capital and more demand from the energy sector, should sanctions be lifted. As such, the signing of a framework agreement between Iran and the P5+1 countries on the nuclear issue presents a considerable upside risk to our construction industry forecasts. This framework is seen as the foundation for a final agreement on Iran's nuclear programme, which will see the gradual lifting of international sanctions.

The Islamic Republic remains a country of pronounced risks, including political instability, economic challenges and social tensions, and we believe the current situation is unsustainable in the long term. US energy sanctions and the EU oil embargo have affected Iranian oil production and consequently the economy at large. With the oil and gas industry accounting for an estimated 70% of the country's total exports, the government has been forced to cut public spending, with a devastating impact on infrastructure development.

Key Trends And Developments

■ We forecast 1.4% y-o-y real construction industry growth in Iran in 2015 and an average of 3.1% over the next five years.

■ The steep fall in oil prices in the past few months has prompted our Oil & Gas team to revise down their already bearish price forecasts and they now forecast Brent to average USD53.0/bbl in 2015.

• After three years of stagnation and recession Iran's economy will return to growth in 2015 and our Country Risk team forecast 1% real GDP growth for the year.

• In the residential sector, we believe housing prices will remain elevated over the coming quarters, largely a result of a lack of appropriate housing units.

• Apart from Chinese and Russian companies, Arab, French, Turkish and South Korean construction firms have expressed an interest in returning to the Iranian infrastructure market. It has been reported that GS Engineering & Construction started surveying the Iranian market, looking for opportunities in gas infrastructure in particular.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت زیرساخت در ایران- سه ماهه سوم 2015