صنعت زیرساخت در ایران-سه ماهه چهارم2011

In Q411, the main theme in Iran’s infrastructure sector was the continuing forging of closer ties with China. Indeed, Iran has secured significant infrastructure investment in return for guaranteed oil and gas shipments, with China recently agreeing to provide assistance for tens of billions of dollars-worth of infrastructure projects across Iran, with railways and electricity generation being top priorities. The domestic situation in Iran is still stable, though cracks have begun to appear in the conservative leadership with a growing rift between the theocratic Guardian Council and the President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This is unlikely to lead to any major political crises, however, as many core policy areas are uncontested between the two, and should not impact project finance or major long-term strategic alliances such as that with China. In terms of recent news:

A spokesperson for the Iraqi Electricity Ministry has announced that the gas pipeline from Iran to Iraq will be completed by 2012. Iraq is planning for its post-invasion future and is thus strengthening its economic ties with Iran. The pipeline project is scheduled to run for five years and will carry 35mn cubic metres (cu m) of natural gas for two Iraqi power stations daily.

Meanwhile, construction work on an 86km railway line linking Iran to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan is scheduled to be concluded by early-2012, reports the Fars News Agency, citing the Iranian minister of roads and urban developments, Ali Nikzad. The US$150mn railroad is part of a 1,000km railway line construction project which was agreed by the three countries in September 2007. Iranian engineers are carrying out the construction of approximately 265km of railway inside Turkmenistan, with the Turkmen section of the line due to be completed by end-2011. The line will cover some 90km in Iran, 700km in Turkmenistan and 210km in Kazakhstan.

Summarising many of the recent announcement concerning Iranian infrastructure investment and Chinese assistance, the deputy road and urban development minister Ahmed Sadeqi announced that some 10,000km of road, 1,000km of highways and 1,000km of railways are set to be built in Iran. Despite this ambitious construction programme, which will be funded through bonds, actual spending and Chinese assistance, Sadeqi admitted that the US$40bn backlog of incomplete projects is a pressing issue for his department. Government funds only cover some 10% of this US$40bn waiting list currently

Despite the commitment of major partners such as China, BMI expects to see the construction industry contract on the back of inflation and the dearth of investment sources, with industry value shrinking by 0.1-0.6% between 2012-2015. We expect the sector to be worth IRR813,917bn (US$54.31bn) by the end of our forecast period in 2015.