صنعت زیرساخت درایران-سه ماهه سوم2011

Although the anti-government unrest that exploded across the Middle East and North Africa in early-2011 failed to escalate in Iran as it did elsewhere, the government’s consolidation of its conservative leadership and its persecution of opposition leaders heightens political risk in the country. Furthermore, these political risks are exacerbated by continuing international sanctions and rampant inflation in the country. These factors lead BMI to maintain its pessimistic outlook for Iran’s construction industry over the nea term. After the sector grew by 2.33% in real terms to IRR289,624bn (US$28.1bn) in 2010, we expect to see just one more year of modest growth – at 2.38% – before the industry stagnates between 2012 and 2015.

Recent key developments in Iran’s construction sector include:

         
In February 2011, China – now Iran's largest trading partner with a total of US$30bn worth of
bilateral trade – has committed to building a 5,300km railway network in a IRR310trnbn (US$13bn) deal, according to Road and Transportation Minister Hamid Behbahani. Iran is not only boosting internal links but also international rail links. The North-South Rail Corridor, an ambitious project to create a freight-rail link between Europe, from Russia to Azerbaijan, through Iran and eventually linking to India and South East Asia, took a step forward in February 2011, with the unveiling of a cooperation agreement between transport ministry representatives from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran. For Iran, the rail line will advance its goal of becoming a trade conduit for surrounding landlocked countries and therefore generate much needed revenues for the government. Other agreements were also signed between the three
countries, with Iran and Russia agreeing to cooperate on the electrification of the Tehran-  Bandar-Abbas railway and an Iran-Azerbaijan agreement to cooperate on further railway projects.

Elsewhere in Iran’s transport sector, the expansion of passenger terminals and communication
facilities at the country’s airports is expected to require IRR1trn (US$100mn), IRNA reported,
quoting Mohsen Esmaeili, managing director of Iran Airports Company. The government allocated approximately IRR400mn (US$40mn) for development work at the Ramsar Airport in the Caspian province of Mazandaran in April 2011. Meanwhile, a total of US$570mn was invested by the private sector to expand ports and sea transportation activities in the year ended March 20 2011.

Within the energy sector, Iranian and Chinese water infrastructure firms Iran Water and Power
Resources Development Co. (IWPCO) and Sinohydro were expected to sign a deal in March 2011 for the construction of what could be the tallest dam in the world. The proposed 315m
concrete dam would be located on the Bakhtiari River in the southwest of Iran and would have a reservoir capacity of 4.8 billion cubic metres (cu m). Iranian contractor Farabare was finalising
the US$2bn deal with Sinohydro in March. The project is expected to support a 1,500MW hydroelectric power station, with construction planned to begin in March 2012.

Apart from favouring rail projects in the country, the government continues its drive to develop
the South Pars gas fields, which is resulting in substantial sums being spent on pipeline construction. The government is expecting to spend around US$16bn on the fields, and the 12th phase of the gas fields saw the completion of a pipeline in April 2011. Iranian engineering firm Khatam al-Anbia, controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG), secured two government pipeline construction contracts worth US$2.6bn in late-February 2011. Iran and Syria also signed a deal for the construction of a natural gas pipeline to run from Iran to Syria through Iraq in January 2011.

BMI expects to see the construction industry contract on the back of inflation and the dearth of investment sources, with industry value shrinking by 0.1-0.6% between 2012-2015. We expect the sector to be worth IRR813,917bn (US$54.31bn) by the end of our forecast period.