گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت زیرساخت درایران-سه ماهه دوم2011

Although comfortably below the days of near-30% price growth, inflation in Iran has been on the rise over late-2010 and early-2011 just as the government finally moved to slash the state’s vast subsidy system. The combination of inflation and substantial sanctions limiting international investment has led BMI to revise down its forecast for Iran’s construction industry over the near term. After the sector grew by 1.2% in real terms to IRR294,741bn (US$28.8bn) in 2010, we expect to see several years of minor contractions before muted growth resumes in 2015.

Major developments in recent months include:

Sanctions continue to dog Iran’s energy industry in particular, with US Undersecretary of State William Burns pegging losses to the sector at around US$50-US$60bn as of December 2010. Iran began loading fuel into the reactor core of its Bushehr nuclear plant in October 2010, with the date for connection to Iran’s national grid slated for February 2011. Energy Minister Majid Namju said in late-December 2010 that Iran is considering building additional nuclear power plants. The country will add more than 27,600MW to its power generation capacity as new power plants become operational in the next five years.

Iran's railways sector holds the potential to boost construction industry value from the stagnating levels BMI is currently forecasting. Rail projects appear to be at the top of the government's priority list, and have the potential to draw in what little international investment is still available to Iran after its energy sector has taken its share. Early in November 2010, Iran's Road and Transportation Minister Hamid Behbahani announced that Iran was looking to attract around US$25bn in investment for the rail sector. This has been followed by the launching of two tenders by the Islamic Republic of Iran Railways (IRIR) for upgrading and expanding the country's rail sector.

Road development remained buoyant over the latest quarter, with construction of the US$4bn 1,100km Shrine to Shrine Highway officially starting in mid-October 2010 and Iran’s largest suspension bridge nearing completion in January 2011.

It was reported in early-January 2011 that Iran had apparently discovered two new natural gas fields. Details on the finds are to be revealed by the Oil Ministry during the Islamic Republic’s anniversary in February, according to Ahmad Qalebani, the head of the National Iranian Oil Company. Meanwhile, the development of the South Pars field received a boost in October 2010 when Venezuela’s Petroleos de Venezuela committed US$780mn to work on South Pars phase 12. The agreement was signed during Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s visit to Iran, when a total of 11 energy deals were signed.

Iran's economy is beginning to show signs of serious strain as a direct result of the US and EU sanctions, which have targeted the energy sector. We remain very cautious over its ability to draw in the vast foreign direct investment (FDI) it needs to boost growth in its infrastructure sector. BMI expects to see the construction industry contract on the back of inflation and the dearth of investment sources, shrinking by 0.1-0.6% in 2011-2014. We expect the sector to resume a real growth rate of 1.4% in 2015, when the industry will be worth IRR828,304bn (US$63.4bn).