بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت داروسازی و بهداشت درایران-سه ماهه اول2011

The calculated value of the Iranian pharmaceutical market in 2009 was IRR22,659bn (US$2.30bn), with generics representing over half of the market by value. In 2010, we forecast that the market will expand by close to 15% in local currency terms, with this figure settling at a lower double-digit level over the remainder of the five-year forecast period. By 2014, the market is expected to be valued IRR39,805bn (US$3.23bn) at consumer prices, posting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.93% in local currency. However, this will translate into a substantially lower expansion rate, which will serve to further deter potential investors, even assuming that the country’s political and economic environment improves.

In BMI’s Middle East and Africa Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for Q111, Iran continued to slip down the rankings. The country is now 10th of the 19 markets surveyed in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. In terms of other comparable markets, although Iran scores well for its rewards opportunities, given its large and growing population numbers and measures designed to improve healthcare services, it is let down by its risks profile. Specifically, intellectual property (IP) protection and other regulatory criteria are highly questionable, with the situation severely exacerbated by political isolation as well as by the intensification of economic isolation pressures.

In fact, sanctions imposed against Iran by national governments and international organisations are expected to have a large impact on the economy's current account dynamics. With financial account inflows slowing, the ability of the central bank to continue defending the rial has been thrown into question, particularly following the sudden, though expected, devaluation of the currency in late September 2010. We have, therefore, revised down our annual real GDP growth forecasts to just 1.2% in 2010/11 and to 1.9% by 2014/2015. While our outlook for higher oil and gas prices will form the main driver of this growth, discordant economic policies and the lack of strategic government spending prior to the sanctions will continue to limit its ability to achieve higher growth rates in the medium term, which will also have an impact on the government’s ability to fund healthcare modernisation initiatives.

On the other hand, Iran boasts a highly educated workforce in the field of industry and science and its pharmaceutical manufacturing capabilities are in place to meet the bulk of local demand. The local pharmaceutical industry is expected to boost domestic pharmaceutical spending through increased diversification and choice, including the offer of biological drugs, such as multiple sclerosis (MS) treatment CinnoVex (recombinant interferon beta-1a), produced by Iranian CinnaGen. However, the plan to export the product to foreign states will only concern less-regulated regional markets, with Armenia and Syria indicated as first destinations. Iran will also be targeting exports to the states within the former Soviet bloc, the Middle East, the Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean region.