گزارش تحلیلی -صنعت داروسازی و بهداشت در ایران - سه ماهه دوم 2010
Executive Summary
The total pharmaceutical market in Iran is forecast to increase from US$2.31bn in 2009 to US$3.77bn by 2014, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.4% in local currency and 10.3% in US dollar terms. By 2019, the drug market in Iran will be worth US$5.42bn. The proportion of GDP dedicated to pharmaceutical spending by this time will be 0.58%, a decline from the 0.62% in 2014 and 0.64% in 2008.
The drug market in Iran is heavily in favour of generic medicines, which contributed US$1.23bn to the total in 2009, with patented drugs at US$817mn and OTC medicines at US$262mn. The prevalence of generics in the market is due both cost-saving measures and the fact that according to the Ministry of Health, Iran produces over 95% of the drugs it consumes. Owing to a lack of research and development (R&D) in the country, generics are preferentially produced, although we note there are several drugmakers that are gradually developing the ability to innovate.
Iran’s biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry has had to develop rapidly – largely because the embargo placed on the country severely restricts its choice of trade partners. However, with a strong higher education system in place and several domestic biotech firms established, the country stands a realistic chance of advancing the sector. Moreover, the Ministry of Health has stated that in the last three years the country has developed and promoted biotechnology, particularly as the industry has been incorporated into the cancer care program.
The Ministry of Health’s assertion that 95% of the drugs consumed in Iran are manufactured in the country means that its ambitious plans to become 100% self-reliant in four years’ time may not be totally unrealistic. However, we believe that Iran’s unattractive regulatory environment is a major obstacle to such progress. Our pharmaceutical trade balance forecast, based on historical data from the UN’s Comtrade Database DESA/UNSD for Iran, indicates that drug imports will continue to rise in the medium term, reaching US$855mn by 2014.
The total pharmaceutical market in Iran is forecast to increase from US$2.31bn in 2009 to US$3.77bn by 2014, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.4% in local currency and 10.3% in US dollar terms. By 2019, the drug market in Iran will be worth US$5.42bn. The proportion of GDP dedicated to pharmaceutical spending by this time will be 0.58%, a decline from the 0.62% in 2014 and 0.64% in 2008.
The drug market in Iran is heavily in favour of generic medicines, which contributed US$1.23bn to the total in 2009, with patented drugs at US$817mn and OTC medicines at US$262mn. The prevalence of generics in the market is due both cost-saving measures and the fact that according to the Ministry of Health, Iran produces over 95% of the drugs it consumes. Owing to a lack of research and development (R&D) in the country, generics are preferentially produced, although we note there are several drugmakers that are gradually developing the ability to innovate.
Iran’s biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry has had to develop rapidly – largely because the embargo placed on the country severely restricts its choice of trade partners. However, with a strong higher education system in place and several domestic biotech firms established, the country stands a realistic chance of advancing the sector. Moreover, the Ministry of Health has stated that in the last three years the country has developed and promoted biotechnology, particularly as the industry has been incorporated into the cancer care program.
The Ministry of Health’s assertion that 95% of the drugs consumed in Iran are manufactured in the country means that its ambitious plans to become 100% self-reliant in four years’ time may not be totally unrealistic. However, we believe that Iran’s unattractive regulatory environment is a major obstacle to such progress. Our pharmaceutical trade balance forecast, based on historical data from the UN’s Comtrade Database DESA/UNSD for Iran, indicates that drug imports will continue to rise in the medium term, reaching US$855mn by 2014.
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