بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت داروسازی وبهداشت درایران-سه ماهه سوم2010
Executive Summary
In BMI’s Middle East and Africa (MEA) Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for Q310, Iran is once again found in eighth place. Compared with its regional neighbours, Iran’s score is buoyed by its growing population and healthcare modernisation initiatives, However, it is let down by deficient intellectual property (IP) protection and other regulatory criteria, although a segment of the population is highly educated and manufacturing capabilities are in place to meet the bulk of local demand. Furthermore, its therapeutic needs extend well beyond essential medicines and therefore the local pharmaceutical industry can boost spending through increased diversification and choice.
The total pharmaceutical market in Iran is forecast to increase from the calculated US$2.31bn in 2009 to US$3.38bn by 2014, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.8% in local currency. Due to the weakening rial, Iran’s pharmaceutical market will expand by a lower US dollar CAGR over the forecast period, which will also deter foreign investment. By 2019, the drug market in Iran will be worth just over US$4bn. Key drivers will be volume-based, with generics expected to outperform the patented market segment, which will actually decline from over 35% of the total market by value in 2009 to under 30% in 2019.
In the meantime, domestic industry will continue to engage in the production of copy products. The ongoing US-led trade embargo imposed on the country will serve to encourage such activities, even if medicines in question are under patent protection. In fact, in March 2010, Iranian drugmaker Soha Pharmaceuticals reported that it had mass-produced generic copies of venflaxine and the antibiotic clindamycin. Whether these are approved generic versions is unclear, but BMI notes that Iran is becoming increasingly self-sufficient in meeting local demand for medicines. The new domestically produced drugs are also said to be cheaper than the current imported ones, which in turn presents further opportunities for exports.
In the meantime, foreign drugmakers will continue to be discouraged by the political stand-off. Additionally, we expect Iranian economic growth rates over the next five years not to return to the levels witnessed during the oil boom. Given the generous public healthcare coverage, the lower revenues will also result in more proactive stance towards cost-containment in the realm of pharmaceuticals expenditure. At the same time, resurgent price pressures will likely have a negative impact on pharmaceutical spending outside the government-subsidised healthcare system. In fact, for 2010, we expect inflation to average 14%, up from the 11% calculated for 2009.
In BMI’s Middle East and Africa (MEA) Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for Q310, Iran is once again found in eighth place. Compared with its regional neighbours, Iran’s score is buoyed by its growing population and healthcare modernisation initiatives, However, it is let down by deficient intellectual property (IP) protection and other regulatory criteria, although a segment of the population is highly educated and manufacturing capabilities are in place to meet the bulk of local demand. Furthermore, its therapeutic needs extend well beyond essential medicines and therefore the local pharmaceutical industry can boost spending through increased diversification and choice.
The total pharmaceutical market in Iran is forecast to increase from the calculated US$2.31bn in 2009 to US$3.38bn by 2014, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.8% in local currency. Due to the weakening rial, Iran’s pharmaceutical market will expand by a lower US dollar CAGR over the forecast period, which will also deter foreign investment. By 2019, the drug market in Iran will be worth just over US$4bn. Key drivers will be volume-based, with generics expected to outperform the patented market segment, which will actually decline from over 35% of the total market by value in 2009 to under 30% in 2019.
In the meantime, domestic industry will continue to engage in the production of copy products. The ongoing US-led trade embargo imposed on the country will serve to encourage such activities, even if medicines in question are under patent protection. In fact, in March 2010, Iranian drugmaker Soha Pharmaceuticals reported that it had mass-produced generic copies of venflaxine and the antibiotic clindamycin. Whether these are approved generic versions is unclear, but BMI notes that Iran is becoming increasingly self-sufficient in meeting local demand for medicines. The new domestically produced drugs are also said to be cheaper than the current imported ones, which in turn presents further opportunities for exports.
In the meantime, foreign drugmakers will continue to be discouraged by the political stand-off. Additionally, we expect Iranian economic growth rates over the next five years not to return to the levels witnessed during the oil boom. Given the generous public healthcare coverage, the lower revenues will also result in more proactive stance towards cost-containment in the realm of pharmaceuticals expenditure. At the same time, resurgent price pressures will likely have a negative impact on pharmaceutical spending outside the government-subsidised healthcare system. In fact, for 2010, we expect inflation to average 14%, up from the 11% calculated for 2009.
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