کد خبر: ۳۴۷۸
تاریخ انتشار: ۰۶ مهر ۱۳۹۵ - ۱۰:۳۶
بیزینس مانیتور

گزارش پتروشیمی در ایران- سه ماهه اول 2016

BMI Industry View

Iran is the focus of intensive interest from investors in the petrochemicals industry, particularly European majors, but there is still an element of risk-aversion in spite of the hype. Although the sanctions are due to be withdrawn, there is lingering uncertainty. Additionally, economic structural problems, a slowdown in key export markets and the falling price of naphtha feedstock are deterrents for involvement in the ethanefed Iranian petrochemicals sector. However, potential rewards are high with considerable Iranian upstream resources and a large domestic market that investors cannot afford to ignore.

 گزارش پتروشیمی در ایران3

Planned projects would raise Iran's petrochemicals capacity three-fold to 180mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2022, although it is uncertain whether this target will be reached. BMI expects the next five years to see the completion of the Olefins 11 and 12 project, which will have capacities of 2.0mn tpa and 1.2mn tpa respectively. Meanwhile, the USD12bn petrochemical hub at Chabahar - the Makran Petrochemical Plan - will add 1.2mn tpa of ethylene and 900,000tpa of polyethylene (PE).

The industry will become rapidly more export-oriented as trade restrictions are lifted with the government expecting exports in 2016 to return to pre-sanctions levels, although it is doubtful that the country's share of the Middle East petrochemicals market will rise from 25% to 41% by 2020. This should help raise petrochemicals capacity utilisation from 68% in 2014.

■ Iran is set to see strong growth in petrochemical consuming sectors with the automotive industry returning to near its pre-sanctions peak in 2015 and set to grow by two-thirds by 2020, while the construction sector is expected to see five year average growth rise from 3.1% per annum to 4.3% as a result of the lifting of international sanctions.

BMI has extended its five year petrochemicals capacity forecast to 2020 this quarter, which takes into account plans for a new complex in Chabahar that will be based around a 1.2mn tpa ethylene cracker with associated PE and polypropylene facilities and other derivatives. Projects that had been put on hold as a result of sanctions are likely to be revived and there is a probability that capacities will be greater. For 2020, BMI forecasts ethylene capacity at 12.3mn tpa with 8mn tpa of PE capacity.

 گزارش پتروشیمی در ایران4

This quarter, Iran has seen a 0.7 points increase in its petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (RRI) due to an 8.0 points increase in its market risk score. This comes amid strong investor interest in the petrochemicals industry and a willingness of the Rouhani administration to revise upstream regulation as well as engage with the global market. Although the petrochemicals industry will be a major beneficiary of sanctions relief, there are still risks that the deal will fall through. Also, structural issues continue to constrain the sector, particularly feedstock supply and pricing issues. It remains in third place, closing with the second placed UAE and raising its lead over Qatar.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- گزارش پتروشیمی در ایران- سه ماهه اول 2016