صنعت داروسازی و بهداشت در ایران- سه ماهه چهارم 2015

BMI Industry View

BMI View: Iran's pharmaceutical market holds significant potential for innovative drugmakers, particularly with the easing of sanctions. This potential is unlikely to be realised in the near term, however, as the government operates in favour of the well developed domestic industry.

Headline Expenditure Projections

■ Pharmaceuticals: IRR60.70tn (USD2.35bn) in 2014 to IRR69.55trn (USD1.93bn) in 2015; +14.6% in local currency terms and -17.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast upgraded slightly from previous quarter.

■ Healthcare: IRR695.67trn (USD21.88bn) in 2014 to IRR792.81trn (USD22.02bn) in 2015; +14.0% in local currency terms and +0.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with previous quarter.

Risk/Reward Index

Iran scores 33.1 out of 100 in terms of its attractiveness as a destination to launch innovative pharmaceuticals in Q415, unchanged from the previous quarter, according to BMI's Risk/Reward Index.

Iran's position in the regional rankings has risen two places in Q315 to 21st out of the 31 countries in the Middle East and Africa region. Its overall score is considerably below the regional average of 41.1.

Generally speaking, Iran benefits from a large and growing population and relatively widespread access to healthcare services. However, its regulatory regime - including intellectual property rights and economic situation - is highly questionable. Consequently, the country performs below the regional average in terms of risk despite improvements in the political situation.

Key Trends And Developments

■ According to the Iranian Deputy Minister of Health, Reza Malekzadeh, Iran will launch a generic version of hepatitis C drug Sovaldi (sofosbuvir) in September 2015. The drug will be offered at USD10, onetenth the price of the originator made by Gilead Sciences.

■ In September 2015, Iran's FDA formed an expert council to identify and mandate new drugs for import.

The council will decide which new drugs can be imported into the domestic market and those which have domestically produced cheaper equivalents will not be allowed in.

■ Iran is planning on exporting domestically-produced hepatitis and BCG vaccines to Syria, according to the head of the Pasteur Institute of Iran in August 2015.

Iran Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2015.

BMI Economic View

Our expectation for sanctions to be relaxed on Iran will ensure the country emerges from recession, but will not presage rapid growth.

BMI Political View

Iran-Russia relations will receive a boost from the anticipated P5+1 nuclear deal in June, as both sides move seek to maximise their potential allies. However, over the longer term (five to ten years), Tehran and Moscow will likely drift apart, as they compete for influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت داروسازی و بهداشت در ایران- سه ماهه چهارم 2015