صنعت ارتباطات از راه دور در ایران- سه ماهه اول 2015

BMI Industry View

BMI View: Iran's telecoms market is an underperformer in the Middle East as a result of political and economic risks, exacerbated by currency depreciation, which is limiting access to the latest device and so limiting the market's growth. Furthermore, the Iranian government is keen to restrict access to international internet content, creating a national internet network that will bypass international gateways and cut off large swathes of global content. For this, the government began talks with the Chinese government in early 2014. That said, over the medium term there is catch-up potential in Iran, and its large population should make it one of the most attractive telecoms markets in the Middle East.

Key Data

■ Fixed-line connections increased by just 1.9% in 2013, a significant slowdown. While we expect growth to continue over the medium term, increased competition in the mobile segment could drive down prices and catalyse fixed-to-mobile substitution.

■ Mobile subscriptions increased in Q214 as MTN reported a sharp growth with net additions of 914,000 in Q214 compared with the previous quarter.

■ We retain our estimate of around 3.8mn 3G subscriptions at the end of 2013 and our forecast for 6.1mn at the end of 2014, and we expect the rapid growth to continue over the short term. However, additional competition in the market would have a greater impact on growth.

Key Trends And Developments

MTN Irancell's operating results for the 2013 gave some insight to smartphone market in Iran. MTN reported a total of 10.3mn smartphone users, which equates to almost 25% of its subscription base.

Considering the lack of 3G service availability in Iran, along with import restrictions on electronics and reduced purchasing power due to currency depreciation, this is an impressive rate of adoption. Nonetheless the smartphone opportunity remains large in Iran due to its late-developer status. BMI believes vendors will be able to capitalise on retail opportunities in the smartphone market as the economic environment becomes more supportive. Smartphone adoption will also prove a boost for data revenue growth as users become more accustomed to wireless data usage. According with this trend, in August 2014 MTN became the first national operator to be granted a 3G licence in Iran; BMI believe this will increase competitiveness and push the development of the 3G network.

Iran and China will partner to control content online and build a 'clean' internet in Iran, according to news in January 2014. The restrictions will apply to the National Information Network (NIN). The news had little impact on our forecasts for broadband subscriptions as the NIN is already factored into the estimates for market expansion. BMI notes that China's restricted internet access and blocking of content deemed unsuitable has not stopped consumers in that country getting online and developing a number of homegrown social networking services and platforms. Although we do not expect Iran to follow this path as its population is much smaller.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت ارتباطات از راه دور در ایران- سه ماهه اول 2015