کد خبر: ۳۲۸۵
تاریخ انتشار: ۱۹ مرداد ۱۳۹۵ - ۱۱:۵۴
بیزینس مانیتور

صنعت پتروشیمی ایران- سه ماهه اول 2015

BMI Industry View

The surge in capacity expected in 2015 will not be sustainable if feedstock supply is not forthcoming and markets do not absorb output. While the plants may nominally come on stream, BMI's latest Iran Petrochemicals Report states that operation rates are likely to be low and plants will be operating at a loss unless Iranian producers can pass on the full costs of production onto consumers in export markets. To operate at reasonable levels of capacity utilisation, olefins output would have to increase by a third and polymers by a third, but the demand may not exist and may not have existed even without the sanctions regime.

صنعت پتروشیمی ایران- سه ماهه اول 2015

Iran is portraying growth in exports and output as a sign that the industry is on the road to recovery. Although diplomatic rehabilitation and improved external markets have boosted exports, production capacity utilisation is still low. With the prospect of new plants coming onstream in 2015, the Iranian petrochemicals industry will continue to face poor performance.

By end-2014, the National Iranian Petrochemical Company (NIPC) claimed that Iran represented 21% of the Middle East's petrochemicals market, a 25% share in the production of petrochemicals in the region and was the second largest exporter in the Arabian Gulf with exports largely destined for Asia. Growth will be led by exports.

Official figures show Iran's petrochemical output stood at 22.8mn tonnes during the six-month period, which puts the country on course for 10% growth in output compared to the 40mn tonnes reported in 2013/14. The lower rate of growth in value compared to volume growth suggests that Iranian petrochemicals production is still dominated by low value basic chemical products. With capacity utilisation likely to average around 50%, significant growth is required for Iranian producers to approach a level regarded as commercially viable.

Petrochemical exports from Iran increased 5% y-o-y in the first half of the current Iranian year (March 21 to September 22). In terms of value, the country hopes to export USD12bn of petrochemi cals products in the 2014/15 Iranian year. Iran's petrochemicals export volumes increased 5% y-o-y to 7.8mn tonnes, with the value of exports rising 7% y-o-y to USD5.1bn. This appears to put Iran on course for matching the USD10.7bn of exports it notched up in 2013/14, when the value of exports rose just 1%. As such, the target of USD12bn in exports this year is unlikely to be met. The total volume of exported goods was 14.5mn tonnes in 2013/14, down 4%. BMI believes that Iran may reverse that decline, but not exceed it.

This quarter, Iran ranks in fifth place with a petrochemicals rating of 59.6 points, up 0.6 points since the previous quarter due to an improvement in market risk associated with strengthening exports and Iran's gradual diplomatic rehabilitation. This places Iran 0.5 points behind Qatar and 2.6 points ahead of Israel.

In the event that international sanctions are eased significantly, particularly in relation to access to European markets and investment, it is likely that the country could see its score improving in coming quarters. Likewise, failure to obtain an agreement on the country's nuclear programme could see the reversal of gains seen in recent quarters. In the long term, much will depend on the extent of Iran's rehabilitation in the international community, and there is a risk that the sanctions regime may not be relaxed sufficiently to stimulate the export growth the country needs to justify planned capacity expansion. Iran's petrochemicals sector is yet to feel the benefits of the easing of international sanctions.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت پتروشیمی ایران- سه ماهه اول 2015