کد خبر: ۳۲۶۲
تاریخ انتشار: ۱۳ مرداد ۱۳۹۵ - ۱۵:۰۹
بیزینس مانیتور

صنعت خودرو در ایران - سه ماهه اول 2015

BMI Industry View

The main political news affecting the Iranian auto industry over the past quarter was the announcement on November 24 2014 that there has been an extension to the deadline for a 'permanent' agreement to be reached on the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme- which aims to ensure that Iran cannot use its enrichment activities to produce a nuclear weapon before the West can intervene - until June 30 2015.

صنعت خودرو در ایران - سه ماهه اول 2015

During this extension period to the ongoing talks between Iran and the P5+1 countries (the US, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany), Iran will continue to receive approximately USD700mn per month from its frozen accounts, although key international sanctions on its energy and banking sector will remain in place.

BMI's Country Risk team believes that the talks will be protracted, with risks tilted slightly to the downside.

Overall, we believe that a solution to the nuclear issue will not be found by June 30, as political constraints will prevent both Iranian and US negotiators from making the significant concessions necessary to bridge existing technical obstacles to a deal. That said, a complete breakdown in talks is also unlikely in June, as the costs would be immense.

Our core view therefore remains that talks will continue over the next two years through a series of partial deals and extensions. Following June 2015, we believe that a form of face-saving, partial agreement will be reached, which will allow for further talks. Sanctions will be somewhat eased, but key measures targeting Iran's oil and banking sector will remain in place. Beyond a two-year timeframe, talks will be influenced by decisions of future political leaders, and their direction is harder to decipher. Political obstacles to a final agreement will remain substantial, and we believe that risks of reaching a final agreement over the coming decade are tilted slightly to the downside.

It is clear that there is strong demand for new vehicles from the Iranian population at present. As such, the potential for improved foreign relations between Iran and the West over the short to medium term has generated considerable interest from carmakers, none more so than French brands Renault and Peugeot, which controlled around a third of the market's output before they withdrew in early 2012 in line with Western sanctions. Indeed, it appears likely that Peugeot will seek some sort of deal with previous partner Iran Khodro, while Renault is presently in talks with Saipa about buying an equity stake in its Pars Khodro subsidiary.

In this context, shortly after the news that the deadline for a permanent deal had been extended, AFP

reported that French carmaker PSA Peugeot Citroën is engaged in talks to resume production in Iran,

according to the company's operations director for the Middle East, Jean Christophe Quemard. Speaking in Tehran on December 1, Quemard said: 'We are in intense discussions. We have a long relationship with Iran. We have the strong will to create a joint venture covering the entire automotive chain as soon as possible'.

However, since the withdrawal of foreign carmakers in 2012, the Iranians have changed the parameters for proposed joint ventures. In November 2014, media reports cited comments from deputy industry minister Mohammed Reza Norouzzadeh, who stated that 40% of any joint venture auto production must be undertaken by domestic manufacturers, rising to 85% over five years. There are also reported that foreign cars are no longer to be imported on a completely built up (CBU) basis.

Part of the reason for these new conditions is to ensure a viable domestic auto production sector. In this context, Iranian car production in Iran totalled 455,000 units in H114, according to a report by the Trend New Agency. Domestic carmakers expect production to reach 1.2mn units by end-2014, IRIB reported on September 29, citing deputy industry minister Norouzzadeh.

Given this strong start to the current calendar year, and the short-term stability provided by the agreed

extension to the nuclear talks, BMI has made another upward revision to its 2014/15 production forecast for Iran. We are now targeting 67.6% growth in vehicle output, to reach 1.1,mn units.

Iranian new vehicle sales have been racing ahead over 2014 year-to-date, with the Focus2Move website reporting that new vehicle sales were up by 23% over H114, at 394,463 units. For the full 2014/15 calendar year, BMI is targeting a strengthening of growth, to 55%. Beyond the current year, we target further growth, of 38%, which should take annual sales to the 1.76mn mark by 2018.

Looking at the most recent sales data by brand (for H114), Saipa remains the dominant player on the

Iranian new car sales market, although second-placed Peugeot is closing the gap.

Over H114, Saipa sold 138,577 units for a share of 35.1%, according to information on the Focus2Move website. Peugeot sold 121,176 units for a share of 30.7%, with Iran Khodro in third place on 54,887 units (13.9% share). All told the Top 3 carmakers account for almost 80% of the new car sales market.

Further down the Top 10 chart, of note is the increasing market share being taken by the two Korean

carmakers Hyundai and Kia, as well as the presence of three Chinese carmakers (Chery, Geely and

Lifan). Lastly, Toyota's 10th position within Iran is a far cry from its No 1 position in many of the world's markets and BMI would expect the Japanese giant to continue making inroads into the Iranian market over the coming years.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت خودرو در ایران - سه ماهه اول 2015