کد خبر: ۲۸۸۴
تاریخ انتشار: ۱۲ اسفند ۱۳۹۴ - ۱۳:۵۹
بیزینس مانیتور

صنعت خودرو در ایران- سه ماهه اول 2014

BMI Industry View

The medium-term outlook for Iranian auto production has improved significantly since our last quarterly update, reflecting the temporary deal reached between US and major powers over the future of its nuclear programme in November 2013. Iran and the 5+1 powers (the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany) clinched an interim deal on the slamic Republic's nuclear programme on November 24, following four days of negotiations in Geneva. Under the agreement, hich will last for six months while a more permanent and comprehensive settlement is found, Iran will curb some of its uclear ctivities in return for an immediate gain of approximately US$7bn in sanctions relief. US President Barack Obama called he deal 'an important first step toward a comprehensive solution that addresses our concerns'.Should a permanent eal be struck in 2014 - and there is no guarantee that this will happen - then there is scope for sanctions on Iran's key oil ector to be lifted, which would be a game changer for the domestic economy and, by extension, demand for new cars from ranian citizens.

 صنعت خودرو در ایران1

Already, French carmaker Renault has announced that it plans to resume the export of car parts to Iran. The company is awaiting clarification on the relaxation of trade sanctions against the country. Clarification of the rules is expected around January 2014. Moreover, while the details of a deal to ease sanctions on Iran are still to be finalised, we believe that fellow French carmaker PSA Peugeot Citroen is already in line to be a major beneficiary. Having been one of Iran's leading foreign brands before sanctions were tightened, a return to the market for Peugeot would help to offset the ongoing slump in the group's European business.

Among domestic automakers, Iran Khodro Company (IKCO) is also likely to benefit from the potential return of its former partner Peugeot, although the domestic carmaker had been making progress i producing its own components for models, such as the Peugeot 206, following the French firm's withdrawal. Local production of Peugeot models in September and October 2013 topped 10,000 units a month for the first time in three years. According to data from the Iran Vehicle Manufacturers Association, the Peugeot Pars claimed second place in terms of output in October 2013, with 10,533 units produced. In total, we still forecast a 50% decline in vehicle production in 2013, however.

Another positive response to the deal for the wider industry was the 2% appreciation of the rial on the news that an agreement had been reached. BMI has previously highlighted the weakness of the rial as another source of pressure on domestic vehicle sales, which means that any further strengthening in the currency would be positive for consumers. That said, this initial strengthening is a drop in the ocean compared with the value lost over the last year or so and we would need to see further progress for this threat to sales to be totally overcome.

 صنعت خودرو در ایران

Indeed, there remains a great deal of 'wait and see' sentiment in the industry, until the full details of future operating in the Iranian market have been made clear. South Korea's Kia Motors, which had a partnership with domestic producer SAIPA until it withdrew from the market in 2010, said it will wait for more information before commenting. Germany's Daimler, which used to have a 30% stake in a diesel engine joint venture with IKCO before starting to cut back its Iranian business in 2010, said it will 'closely monitor' the situation, but has no plans to return to the market.

In a further encouraging development, in December 2013 it was reported that more than US$1bn in foreign direct investment has been approved for Iran's automotive manufacturing industry, according to the head of the Organisation for Investment, Economic and Technical Assistance of Iran, Behrouz Alishiri. Some US $300mn has already been invested. The government wants to turn Iran into an automobile production hub by extending legal support and special privileges to overseas investors. Alishiri says the government will provide a long-term plan to the Iranian automobile sector to help find reliable foreign investors.