صنعت پتروشیمی در ایران-سه ماهه چهارم2011

The sanctions regime against Iran will continue to hamper the country’s hopes of becoming a global leader in petrochemicals, according to BMI’s latest Iran Petrochemicals Report.

Iran claims to be the second largest petrochemicals producer in the Middle East with 27% share of output, compared with Saudi Arabia’s 50%. It aims to represent 36% of regional output in 2015 by when it hopes to implement 47 petrochemicals projects under the Fifth Five-Year Plant, adding 43mn tpa of capacity and 28% of the total added capacity in the region.

Iran is planning to export US$14bn worth of petrochemicals in FY2011/12. In the first two months of the year, it exported 2.8mn tonnes at a value of US$2bn. In FY2010/11, the country produced more than 40mn tonnes of petrochemicals products of which 18mn tonnes were exported, worth US$11.6bn. Asia, particularly China, represented 37% of exports, while the Middle East comprised 25%, South Asia 18% and Europe 11%. In terms of domestic consumption, growth was sustained but unspectacular in FY2010/11. According to industry sources in Iran, the country’s polyolefin consumption in FY2010/11 was estimated at 1.7mn tonnes, up by nearly 8% y-o-y. PE accounts for 64% of the total, while PP represents the remainder. Domestic consumption represents around 39% of Iran’s combined PE and PP capacity of 4.4mn tpa. Total domestic petrochemicals sales were estimated at 13mn tonnes. Growth levels are disappointing and should be at least double this level, in line with similarly positioned markets.

The government is hoping for export revenues to grow by over 20% in the current financial year. With implied capacity utilisation at 78% in FY2010/11 and slowing domestic demand growth, capacity additions over the current financial year will have to serve the export market which is compromised by sanctions. Capacity utilisation varies across the sector. Arya Sasol is running near peak capacity, but the Jam and Morvarid facilities are suffering from low levels of production in part due to feedstock availability.

The focus of investment over the next five years will be the 15th, 16th and 17th olefins complexes and several methanol and ammonia and urea projects. The country's fifth five-year plan, which runs through 2015, will require an investment of US$49bn and double petrochemical capacity to 100mn tpa. This includes 30 new plants with capacity for 37mn tpa. Five more special economic zones will be created. Iran is also contemplating integrating its refineries with petrochemicals production. That would add new petrochemical fractions, such as propylene, which have not been available in the country on a large scale. In the meantime, Iran is planning to build several PP plants using propane from propane dehydrogenation units, methanol-to-propylene technology, and refinery propylene by the end of the current five-year plan. Among the complexes completed last year was the Morvarid petrochemical complex at Assaluyeh, dubbed the 5th Olefins complex with capacity for 544,000tpa ethylene, the 6th ammonia and urea complex at the Pardid petrochemical complex with 600,000tpa and more than 1mn tpa urea and a 300,000tpa LDPE plant at the Amir Kabir complex. Meanwhile, the crackers at Kavyan 11th Olefins complex at the Pars Special Economic Energy Zone, fed by Iran’s West Ethylene Pipeline, which will supply several polymer plants along its route, is close to completion. The two-line complex will have combined capacity for 2mn tpa; the first 1mn tpa is due online in 2011 and the second online in 2012.

The Ministry of Petroleum has set targets for annual production of 11.5mn tpa of ethylene and 11.5mn tpa of polymer. BMI forecasts that by 2015, ethylene capacity will total 11.08mn tpa, with the expected completion of the Olefins 11 and 12 projects with capacities of 2.0mn tpa and 1.2mn tpa respectively. Other capacities including 7.06mn tpa of PE and 1.29mn tpa of PP. LDPE will contribute 43% of the 3.7mn tpa expansion in the PE sector, followed by HDPE (33%) and LLDPE (24%). The growth in the importance of LDPE in the Iranian petrochemical industry goes against global market trends that increasingly favour LLDPE as a substitute. LLDPE possess a higher tensile strength than LDPE, but with lower thickness and greater transparency than HDPE. LLDPE is steadily eroding LDPE market share as it allows lower gauges that can reduce costs for many applications. Consequently, BMI anticipates a gradual fall in LDPE demand, undermining the profitability of Iranian LDPE production.