بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت ارتباطات از راه دور درایران-سه ماهه چهارم2010

BMI’s Q410 update on Iran’s Telecommunications markets contains new subscriber data for the mobile market and fixed-line telephony market, the latter which has seen a revision to its forecasts. Based on available data from South Africa’s MTN Group, which published data last quarter for the three months ended March 2010 for its Iranian unit, MTN Irancell, we believe that there were 62.395mn mobile subscribers and that penetration rates had reached around 83%.

Our estimated figure for Q110’s mobile market remains in line with BMI’s forecasts that by the end of 2010, the number of subscribers will have reached 68.85mn, representing year-on-year growth of 10.3%. Although penetration rates will have topped 90% by then, we believe that the solid growth of the market will rely on greater competition entering the market. As we noted last quarter, Tamin Telecom is set to roll out its mobile services by the end of 2010, which should encourage network expansion growth while competitors will look to promote their services further ahead of Tamin Telecom’s entry. While we already believe that the Iranian market houses a number of inactive SIMs and multiple SIM cards, which is responsible for the inflated penetration rates, this should not affect future growth, and we are confident that by the end of our forecast in 2014, there will be 98.9mn subscribers representing a penetration rate of 126%.

There is also the possibility that a new investor may enter the telecoms market by way of acquiring a 49% stake in Mobile Telecommunications Company of Esfahan (MTCE), which is currently owned by Malaysia’s Axiata Group. The latter announced in July 2010, its intentions to offload its Iranian stake. This could the UAE’s Etisalat make a bid as the operator has been known to be interested in entering the Iranian market having previously attempted to do so by way of securing the right to be the exclusive 3G operator in Iran for two years. However, Etisalat had its licence withheld, which may be an indication that a repeat entry into Iran may not be on the cards. Furthermore, authorities in the UAE were expected to announce new restrictions on the thousands of Iranian businesses based in Dubai, a major hub for the reexport of goods to Iran, which could mean a bid from a UAE company, while permitted by Axiata may not be looked upon favourably by the Iranian authorities. As for other foreign investors, the business environment climate being unstable in Iran with new U.S. sanctions in place and possibly from Europe make Iran an unattractive investment destination.

Meanwhile, the TCI announced there were 25.410mn fixed-lines in service as of June 2010, with penetration rates of around 34%. Our revised fixed-line forecast for Iran continues to reveal expected steady growth over the next five years. Averaging y-o-y growth of 2.6% between 2010 and 2014. By the end of 2010, we envisage a penetration rate of 35.8% and rising to 37.7% in 2014.