گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت انرژی درایران-سه ماهه چهارم2010

We forecast that Iran will account for 15.04% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2014, with a theoretical surplus of electricity supply if nuclear generation plans proceed uninterrupted. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2010 is 1,221 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.0% over the previous year (where markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,463TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 19.8% between 2010 and the end of the period.

MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated by BMI at 1,138TWh, accounting for 93.2% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,333TWh, implying 17.2% growth in 2010-2014 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 91.1% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Iran’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 191TWh, or 16.76% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 14.77% of regional thermal generation.

Gas will have been the dominant fuel in Iran in 2010, accounting for an estimated 57.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 40.6% and hydro with a 0.9% share of PED. Nuclear power may have made its first contribution during the year, but at a very low level. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,074mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 16.3% growth over the period since 2010. Iran’s estimated 2010 market share of 22.40% is set to ease to 21.51% by 2014. Iran’s nuclear demand is forecast to reach 8TWh by 2014, with its share of the MEA nuclear market rising to 37.21%.

Iran now holds eighth place above Algeria and Kuwait in BMI’s updated and expanded Power Business Environment rating. This is largely a reflection of its market size. The power sector is not competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment is unattractive and the risk outlook is suffering thanks to the controversy over the country’s nuclear energy programme. We see little scope for a recovery from this quarter’s reduced score.

BMI now forecasts that Iran’s real GDP growth will average 1.90% a year between 2010 and 2014, with 2010 growth assumed to be 1.20%. The population is expected to expand from 73.9mn to 77.6mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 27% and 4% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 177TWh in 2010 to 192TWh by 2014, providing theoretical export potential rising from an estimated 23TWh in 2010 to 28TWh in 2014, assuming 2.3% average annual growth in electricity generation. Losses during power transmission and distribution mean the actual level of power exports is well below the theoretical surplus, but is set to rise. The success of the nuclear programme will have a major influence on generation growth.

Between 2010 and 2019 we forecast a 24.0% increase in Iranian electricity generation, near the bottom of
the MEA range. This equates to 12.7% in 2014-2019, up from 10.0% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to increase from 11.6% in 2010-2014 to 13.1%, representing 26.3% for the entire forecast period. From 2010, the availability of nuclear power is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by just 10% between 2010 and 2019. Details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.