کد خبر: ۱۹۳۴
تاریخ انتشار: ۰۷ مهر ۱۳۹۴ - ۱۶:۲۲

بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت ارتباطات ازراه دوردرایران -سه ماهه سوم2010

Executive Summary


BMI’s Q310 update on Iran’s Telecommunications markets contains revised mobile and fixed line telephony forecasts, which reflect newly published operational data. Since our last update, South Africa’s MTN Group has published end-of-2009 data for its Iranian business MTN Irancell. The South African operator has also published mobile customer figures for the period ending 31 March 2010. Meanwhile, the latest figures for Iran’s fixed-line and internet sectors, as well as for the mobile market as a whole, relate to the end of September 2009. At the time of writing, we were still waiting for the release of the
end-of-year results (for the year ending in March 2010) from Iranian incumbent operator, the Telecommunications Companyof Iran (TCI).

Based on the available data, we estimate that, at the end of 2009, Iran had just over 59mn registered mobile users. This figure includes the subscribers of TCI’s mobile unit, Mobile Communications Company of Iran (MCI), MTN Irancell and the three smaller operators. In the twelve months ending 31 December 2009, we calculate that Iran’s mobile customer base grew by 25.6%. Growth in 2009 was considerably lower than the 63.4% growth rate recorded for the same period in 2008. This was partly a reflection of the slowdown in Iran’s economy, a development which appears to have contributed to weak subscriber growth in the earlier part of 2009.

One of the most significant developments to have occurred within Iran’s telecoms sector in the first half of 2010 has been the move to officially award a licence to provide both 2G and 3G mobile telephony services to Tamin Telecom. Tamin Telecom initially partnered with local and foreign investors in 2008 in a bid for Iran’s third national licence which ultimately failed. However, now that Tamin has been awarded its licence, it is understood that the operator plans to start offering commercial services before the end of 2010. Meanwhile, according to reports, the company plans to recruit a consultancy with experience of setting up and managing mobile networks. At the time of writing, it was still unclear which companies Tamin was working with in order to develop its mobile network in the country.

BMI welcomes the arrival of a third player to Iran’s mobile market, which continues dominated by two major operators. Among other things, the launch of commercial services by Tamin will result in increased price competition and service innovation. Nevertheless, until commercial services are launched, we would urge caution when attempting to forecast the full impact which Tamin might have on the sector. It is important to remember the way Tamin has fallen out with its partners in the past.

Although Iran’s composite score has risen slightly this quarter, the country remains in fifteenth position in BMI’s Business Environment Rankings for the Middle East and North Africa. Iran’s higher overall score is the result of an improved Telecoms Market rating. Meanwhile, Iran receives a slightly weaker score for Country Risk, with the latter reflecting both political and economic concerns.



گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت ارتباطات ازراه دوردرایران -سه ماهه سوم2010