گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت انرژی در ایران - سه ماهه دوم 2010
Executive Summary
We forecast that Iran will account for 16.54% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2014, with a theoretical surplus of electricity supply if nuclear generation plans proceed. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,233 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 2.5% over the previous year. We forecast an increase in regional generation to 1,624TWh by 2014, a rise of 31.7% between 2009 and the end of the forecast period.
Thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated by BMI at 1,151TWh, accounting for 93.3% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,492TWh, implying 29.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation only slightly to 91.9% – despite environmental concerns about promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Iran’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 199TWh, or 17.31% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 15.71% of regional thermal generation.
Gas was the dominant fuel for Iran in 2009, accounting for an estimated 56.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 40.8% and hydro with a 1.4% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,084.5mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 24.85% growth over the period since 2009. Iran’s estimated 2009 market share of 21.87% is set to reach 22.04% by 2014. Iran’s nuclear demand is forecast to reach 10TWh by 2014, with its share of the MEA nuclear market rising to 42.55%.
Iran now shares fifth place with Egypt in BMI’s updated and expanded Power Business Environment rating. This is simply a reflection of its market size. The power sector is not competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment is unattractive and the risk outlook is suffering thanks to the controversy over the country’s nuclear energy programme. We see scope for a reduced score and a drop further down the rankings during the next few quarters.
BMI now forecasts that Iran’s real GDP growth will averaging 3.06% a year between 2010 and 2014, with 2009 growth assumed to have been 1.60%. The population is expected to expand from 74.2mn to 78.5mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 41% and 14%, respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 177TWh in 2009 to 213TWh by 2014, providing theoretical export potential rising from an estimated 34TWh in 2009 to 55TWh in 2014, assuming 4.5% average annual growth in electricity generation. Losses during power transmission and distribution mean the actual level of power exports is well below the theoretical surplus, but is set to rise.
Between 2009 and 2019 we forecast a 53.8% increase in Iranian electricity generation, near the middle of the MEA range. This equates to 21.1% in 2014-2019, down from 27.0% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to fall from 25.8% in 2009-2014 to 19.0%, representing 49.7% for the entire forecast period. From 2010, the availability of nuclear power is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 38.1% between 2009 and 2019. Details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
We forecast that Iran will account for 16.54% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2014, with a theoretical surplus of electricity supply if nuclear generation plans proceed. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,233 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 2.5% over the previous year. We forecast an increase in regional generation to 1,624TWh by 2014, a rise of 31.7% between 2009 and the end of the forecast period.
Thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated by BMI at 1,151TWh, accounting for 93.3% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,492TWh, implying 29.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation only slightly to 91.9% – despite environmental concerns about promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Iran’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 199TWh, or 17.31% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 15.71% of regional thermal generation.
Gas was the dominant fuel for Iran in 2009, accounting for an estimated 56.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 40.8% and hydro with a 1.4% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,084.5mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 24.85% growth over the period since 2009. Iran’s estimated 2009 market share of 21.87% is set to reach 22.04% by 2014. Iran’s nuclear demand is forecast to reach 10TWh by 2014, with its share of the MEA nuclear market rising to 42.55%.
Iran now shares fifth place with Egypt in BMI’s updated and expanded Power Business Environment rating. This is simply a reflection of its market size. The power sector is not competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment is unattractive and the risk outlook is suffering thanks to the controversy over the country’s nuclear energy programme. We see scope for a reduced score and a drop further down the rankings during the next few quarters.
BMI now forecasts that Iran’s real GDP growth will averaging 3.06% a year between 2010 and 2014, with 2009 growth assumed to have been 1.60%. The population is expected to expand from 74.2mn to 78.5mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 41% and 14%, respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 177TWh in 2009 to 213TWh by 2014, providing theoretical export potential rising from an estimated 34TWh in 2009 to 55TWh in 2014, assuming 4.5% average annual growth in electricity generation. Losses during power transmission and distribution mean the actual level of power exports is well below the theoretical surplus, but is set to rise.
Between 2009 and 2019 we forecast a 53.8% increase in Iranian electricity generation, near the middle of the MEA range. This equates to 21.1% in 2014-2019, down from 27.0% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to fall from 25.8% in 2009-2014 to 19.0%, representing 49.7% for the entire forecast period. From 2010, the availability of nuclear power is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 38.1% between 2009 and 2019. Details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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